There will likely be the most significant shift in Rome's political makeup in decades if the extreme right wins the upcoming Italian election.

On Sunday, Italians will vote in a snap general election that is widely predicted to give power to a far-right political organization. For a country where there is already a lot of economic and political unpredictability, this might be a very disruptive event.

Opinion polls taken before September 9 (the start of a blackout period) suggested that a right-wing coalition would win a majority of seats in the consolidated lower and upper chambers of parliament.

Giorgia Meloni's far-right Fratelli d'Italia leads the coalition (Brothers of Italy). Matteo Salvini's Lega, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, and a lesser coalition member, Noi Moderati, are the other right-leaning groups involved.

Among the many political groups, the Brothers of Italy party stands out and is expected to collect the largest number of votes. Politiche 2022 reports that it is currently garnering around 25% of the vote, well above the predictions for its closest right-wing ally, Lega, which are only around 12%.

The Democratic Party, on the political left, is expected to receive about 21% of the vote under the leadership of former Prime Minister Enrico Letta. Its coalition partners, the Green and Left Alliance, More Europe, and Civic Commitment, will likely receive fewer than ten percent of the vote.

Mario Draghi resigned as prime minister in July because he was unable to rally his political alliance to support his economic agenda. This resulted in an unexpectedly fast election.

Who are the Italian "Brotherhood"?

Giorgia Meloni, the head of the Fratelli d'Italia party, might make history as Italy's first female prime minister if her party is elected. Her election would also make her Italy's first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini took office a century ago.

Carlo Ciccioli, head of the Fratelli d'Italia in the eastern Italian province of Le Marche, told CNBC that the party's meteoric rise in popularity had "spread to the whole of Italy" and that it was now ready to assume power.

Although polls suggest that our party is currently the most popular in the country, we won't know for sure until Sunday's election. I am confident in Fratelli d'Italia because... Because we have solid leadership at the helm. Jouma Bercetche praised Giorgia Meloni for her keen understanding of both culture and politics.

Although Fratelli d'Italia didn't officially exist until 2012, its roots may be traced back to the neo-fascist movement that emerged in Italy after Mussolini's death in 1945.

Members of Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PdL) party, like as Giorgia Meloni, founded Fratelli d'Italia. It takes its moniker from the opening lines of the Italian national anthem.

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The party's popularity has soared since then, to the point where it now outranks the more traditionally populist Lega. It has gained traction among those who are anxious about Italy's future in the EU, the state of the economy, and the influx of immigrants (because Italy is a last destination for many people making the dangerous journey across the Mediterranean).

According to experts, the party's success can be attributed in part to its refusal to join Draghi's new coalition.

This set Meloni out "as an outsider within the political system and as the lone opposition figure," as noted recently by the co-president of a risk consultancy, Wolfango Piccoli.

History and Methods

A lot of people have called Fratelli d'Italia "neo-fascist" or "post-fascist" because of the group's policies, which are similar to those of Italy's fascist era and are nationalist, nativist, and anti-immigration.

Meloni, for her part, insists that fascists have been removed from the party, saying this past summer that Italy's right-wing had "relegated fascism to the trash of history for decades."

According to Meloni's 2019 statement, she wants to safeguard "God, country, and family," thus it's safe to conclude the party has socially conservative ideas.

Fratelli d'Italia now supports EU reform in order to make the EU less bureaucratic and less prominent in domestic politics, although the party has softened its stance on the euro in Europe. 'A Europe that does less, but does it better' is a tagline that sums up the organization's approach.

It has agreed with the center-right coalition's position that the next administration should lower sales taxes on some commodities to help the cost of living crisis, and it has suggested that Italy should renegotiate its Covid recovery funds with the EU.

In contrast to the Lega, which has been ambivalent regarding NATO and Ukraine, Fratelli d'Italia has been pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine and has supported sanctions against Russia.

It has also been friendly with one of the EU's most visible opponents, Hungarian President Viktor Orban, supporting the dictatorial leader despite a resolution by the European Parliament declaring that Hungary was no longer a democracy.

Liberal politicians are worried that Meloni's government could change Italy's relationship with the rest of Europe. Democratic Party leader Enrico Letta recently told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick that Italy faces a stark choice in Europe: either remain among the continent's most advanced economies and governments, or be "relegated.

Keeping our place in the "first division" is the primary choice. The first section includes both us and the other main European nations and founders, Germany, France, and Spain.

At the Ambrosetti economic event in early September, he said, "The other option is to be downgraded to the second division alongside Poland and Hungary, staying with them against Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid."

'I think it would be awful for Italy to choose the second division,' he said.

Several analysts have called Meloni a political chameleon because of her fluctuating views over time.

Whether the "Meloni who complimented Hungary's Viktor Orban" or "Meloni who supported Mario Draghi's anti-Russia stance" will be at the helm of the administration is a mystery, as posed by Wolfango Piccoli of Teneo in a September note.

Is it the "comforting leader" who had a more traditional position toward Europe during the campaign, or the "sovereigntist" who called for Italy's expulsion from the euro?

Is it the populist who wants to build a naval blockade in the Mediterranean to stop the illegal influx of immigrants, or the more responsible conservative leader who wants to find a European solution?" he asked.

It is expected that tensions between the FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia, the parties that make up the right-wing alliance, will arise in the wake of the election, which is to be expected given Italy's notoriously high turnover rate of administrations (69 since World War II).

By highlighting policy disagreements on issues like fiscal austerity, pensions, and Russia sanctions, Salvini and Berlusconi hope to regain relevance after a (potential) electoral setback.

Piccoli warned that "shortly after the election, policy disagreements and personal rivalries will arise, generating turbulence and diminishing the effectiveness of the new administration."